While there is still no evidence of life beyond Earth, many scientists believe that we are not alone in the vastness of the Universe. It is believed that a significant number of stars in the Milky Way alone may contain potentially habitable planets, and recent calculations by ChatGPT have shown that the probability of life existing at a distance of about 665 light years from us is 99.9%. Based on the assumption that the vastness of space is inhabited by technologically advanced civilizations, astrophysicists have come to the conclusion that they have only 1,000 years before the conditions on the planets become uninhabitable. This is all due to climate change, which occurs even if civilizations rely on renewable energy sources.
The authors of a new study have concluded that alien civilizations are dying because of climate change caused by technological progress. Image: science.nasa.gov
Contents
- 1 Life Beyond Earth
- 2 Why Do Advanced Civilizations Perish?
- 3 Growing Needs
- 4 Three Possible Paths for the Development of Civilizations
- 5 Why Is This Important?
Life Beyond Earth
The search for extraterrestrial life continues despite the deafening silence of space. And while most scientific research focuses on searching for microorganisms beyond Earth (which makes sense, given our limited capabilities), astrophysicists are not afraid to make bolder and more ambitious assumptions. After all, they have a variety of astronomical tools at their disposal, including the James Webb Infrared Space Observatory, which can peer into the most distant corners of the Universe.
What's more, the catalog of discovered exoplanets contains more than 5,000 worlds. Let us remind you that scientists call exoplanets planets that orbit other stars. Some of them, according to astrophysicists, are potentially habitable.
The universe is infinite. This means that humanity is hardly alone in its vastness. Image: cnn.com
If we talk on the scale of the entire Universe, then the probability of the existence of intelligent life in its vastness is not small. Mathematical calculations of the same ChatGPT, which we talked about earlier, suggest that at a distance of 665 light years from Earth (this number in kilometers looks like this: 6,290,000,000,000,000) life is almost inevitable.
More on the topic: According to astrophysicists, we will find aliens within 30 years
As part of a new study, the results of which are presented on the preprint server ArXiv, scientists have developed a model considering the expected lifespan of technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations and the reasons why they may die.
Why do advanced civilizations perish?
So, according to the authors of the scientific work, any exponentially growing technological civilization has only 1,000 years before the surface temperature of its planet becomes too high to support life. The team came to this conclusion by assessing the technological energy consumption of advanced civilizations, which has a significant impact on the climate.
The laws of thermodynamics dictate that any energy conversion is accompanied by the release of waste heat. This means that the more energy a civilization consumes, the more heat it releases into the environment. And while the impact of this heat on Earth's climate is currently insignificant compared to the greenhouse effect caused by CO₂ emissions, this could change dramatically if energy consumption continues to rise as technology advances.
The lifespan of technologically advanced civilizations does not exceed 1,000 years. Image: purpledshub.com
To show that with an annual increase in energy consumption of only 1%, the planet could reach a critical heating level in less than 1000 years, astrophysicists used simple theoretical models. The results showed that such exponential growth would lead to a significant increase in the average surface temperature, which could make the planet uninhabitable due to the possible loss of liquid water.
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Thus, it could take less than 1,000 years for an advanced alien civilization to destroy its own planet through climate change, even if it relies solely on renewable energy.
Growing Needs
Note that the authors of the scientific paper were initially inspired by human energy use, which has grown exponentially since the 1800s. In 2023, for example, humans used about 180,000 terawatt hours (TWh), which is roughly the amount of energy that reaches Earth from the Sun.
Much of this energy comes from gas and coal, which are heating the planet at an unsustainable rate. But even if all this energy came from renewable sources like wind and solar, humanity would continue to grow and thus need more energy.
The greater the needs of civilization, the greater the consequences. Image:
This situation can be compared to a leak in a bathtub. If a bathtub is not completely full and there is a leak, only a small amount of water may leak out. But as the bathtub fills up more and more, and the energy level increases exponentially to meet demand, a small leak can suddenly flood the entire house, the authors of the scientific paper explained.
In this case, the temperature of the flooded house corresponds to the atmospheric temperature of the planet. Growing energy leakage, even due to the use of green energy, will eventually lead to overheating of any planet to the point where it becomes uninhabitable.
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Three possible paths for the development of civilizations
As part of the study, astrophysicists indicated three possible paths for the development of civilization. According to the first scenario, civilizations that do not limit the growth of energy consumption risk facing ecological collapse and extinction in a relatively short time.
Second scenariostates that limiting or reducing energy consumption can prolong the existence of civilization, allowing the planet to maintain the conditions necessary to support life.
Civilizations can develop in different ways. Image: icdn.com
The third optioninvolves using space infrastructure to generate energy and dissipate heat. It is believed that this approach could help civilizations bypass the limitations of their home planet and continue to develop without the threat of overheating and climate collapse.
Fortunately, there are other options for both humans and alien civilizations. The authors of the study suggested that instead of accepting extinction or developing technology to move energy production off-planet, a civilization could stop growing.
If a species chose balance and learned to live in harmony with its environment, then the species itself and its descendants could have survived, perhaps, for up to a billion years, the scientists concluded.
Why is this important?
Although the findings cannot be backed up with hard evidence, the work has important implications for astrobiologists. The 1,000-year threshold, a blink of an eye in cosmic time, makes it much more difficult to find life elsewhere in the cosmos, since worlds like Earth take hundreds of millions of years to become habitable.
The findings also have implications for the so-called Fermi paradox: if most technological civilizations self-destruct due to uncontrolled growth, the chances of finding them are greatly reduced.
The universe is full of mysteries. Image: i.mashable.com
On the other hand, civilizations that have learned to manage their energy consumption or have moved to other planets and galaxies may survive longer and be more visible to us due to their technological traces.
You might also be interested in: Has the James Webb Space Telescope Really Found Life Beyond Earth?
Overall, the study highlights the need to rethink our approach to energy consumption. With humanity already facing the effects of climate change, understanding the long-term consequences of technological developments has never been more important.