You may have noticed that recently powerful magnetic storms have become more frequent, causing northern lights even in central Russia. During particularly powerful magnetic storms, northern lights occur even in more southern regions, where it is usually almost impossible to see them. Until recently, scientists were sure that this was due to the usual peak of activity in the 11-year solar cycle. However, it seems that we are witnessing something unusual – the Sun's activity is excessively high even for the peak. This means that powerful magnetic storms with northern lights will occur even more often, and this situation will last, perhaps, until the middle of next year.
Scientists reported abnormally high solar activity. Photo source: rtraveler.ru
What is happening to the Sun
Solar cycles usually last 11 years. During this period, the Sun's activity fluctuates from solar minimum to maximum. The peak of solar activity occurs in the middle of the cycle, when the star's magnetic fields change places.
The penultimate solar cycle lasted from 2008 to 2019. This means that the Sun is currently in the middle of the current solar cycle and is approaching its maximum, but has not yet reached it. It must be said that already in 2023, scientists discovered a certain anomaly – solar activity began to increase unusually quickly.
There are many sunspots on the Sun during the solar maximum, but none during the minimum. Photo source: weather.com
Let us recall that one of the ways to obtain information about the level of solar activity is to count sunspots. Currently, the number of sunspots is setting records for the past several decades. For example, on August 21, NOAA reported 299 sunspots. This is the highest figure in the past 22 years. The unofficial estimate of the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for August 8 was 337 daytime sunspots. Such a number has not been observed since March 2001.
Tracking sunspots is of great importance. The fact is that they not only give an idea of the level of solar activity, but are also often the epicenter of powerful X-class solar flares with massive coronal mass ejections. That is, it is because of them that geomagnetic storms and northern lights occur on Earth. The latter, of course, are a beautiful, mesmerizing spectacle, but they promise us serious trouble.
When the Sun reaches maximum activity
Scientists are constantly having to adjust their predictions about the peak of solar activity. In 2023, researchers expected it to occur before the end of 2024. However, according to current forecasts, solar maximum will not occur until the second half of 2025. This means that the Sun will continue to become more and more active for about another year.
Northern lights will become an increasingly common occurrence in central Russia. Photo source: omskzdes.ru
But, it should be taken into account that no one can give an accurate forecast. As Alex James, a solar physics specialist and employee of the University of London, says, scientists will be able to understand that the Sun has already reached its maximum only when its activity begins to decrease again. Nevertheless, forecasting gives time to prepare for future events.
Why is abnormal solar activity dangerous
Scientists are not making any apocalyptic predictions, at least at the moment. But they are still confident that the solar maximum in this cycle will be much stronger than previously expected. As mentioned above, this threatens more frequent and more powerful geomagnetic storms.
Satellites are the most vulnerable to the effects of magnetic storms. Recall that in February 2022, 38 Starlink satellites fell out of orbit due to a magnetic storm. A powerful geomagnetic storm in May 2023 led to Starlink malfunctions. Obviously, if the Earth encounters more powerful geomagnetic storms, many other satellites will also suffer from them.
In 2022, 38 Starlink satellites were knocked out of orbit due to a solar flare. Photo source: ixbt.com
In addition, high-energy particles bursting into the Earth's magnetosphere at high speed can cause serious damage to radio communications, which are relied upon by the military, airlines, GPS systems, etc. Geomagnetic storms have already caused radio communication interruptions in North and South America, as well as in Europe and Africa this year.
This means that at some point, satellite navigation may stop working. Flights around the world will be canceled and delayed. In addition, a global blackout is possible due to the failure of the energy system. Spacecraft that are in space at the time of the geomagnetic storm may also be damaged.
Be sure to visit our Zen and Telegram channels, here you will find the most interesting news from the world of science and the latest discoveries!
It must be said that according to some scientists, although the current activity of the Sun seems anomalous, in a historical context it is quite average. The problem is that humanity has become much more vulnerable to the effects of solar maximum over the past 100 years due to our reliance on satellite technology, electronic devices and radio communications.