The company that run the world, seem to be invulnerable. But they are actually very vulnerable. It always has been: IBM, Microsoft, Yahoo, MySpace — once all seemed invincible. But gradually, one by one, they sank lower and lower in the rankings (although Microsoft remains a company on 638 billion).
The same is true today, as four companies — Google, Apple, Facebook and Amazon — are fighting for the iron throne in a world of technology (with a total capitalization of 2.61 trillion dollars). And although the contenders for the crown tonight, who knows what will happen in a few years.
The key to a successful revolution lies in the underlying innovation, in the case of the tech industry obviously we are on the verge of breakthrough several new categories that will give birth to a multi-billion dollar markets. Perhaps, however, that Google, Apple, Facebook or Amazon first kapitalisiert these innovations, but the appearance of completely new players.
Even if newcomers do not become giants, space for the big success stories abound. “It would be difficult to create a universal search engine or social network for the mass market,” says Benedict Evans, a partner and analyst at Andreessen Horowitz, one of the most prestigious venture capital firms in Silicon valley. “It will be difficult to create an Apple or Facebook, but that doesn’t mean you can’t compete with them in his field”.
The question is: what technologies bring the future? At first glance, the future is determined by four region — autonomy, mixed reality, cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence. Here are no surprises. But there are others.
The evolution of new technologies is comparable to the way in the sky grows a skyscraper. First in the land formed hole, in which nothing is visible. Then there are the forests, and the design begins to grow. It seems that nothing is happening, but one day the building is completed. Technology: technology is completed when pour rocket fuel on the fire.
Experts see in these four areas, one whole building: autonomy is a “dirty hole in the ground”; mixed reality — a forest building; cryptocurrency — the building itself; II — completed tower, looking for tenants.
S-curves
Analysts believe that the technology industry has a long history of cycles of so-called S-curves, or slow starts with fast and steep growth and slow maturation. Today’s S-curve is mobile Internet, previous computer the Internet. In each case, as they grow older curve, the question shifts from technology itself to what you can create on top of it. So we moved on to the mobile Internet, and then to Instagram and other things you can do with phones in the Network.
The fact is that when we get to a certain point of the curve, people always start to say that the platform is dead. IPhone appears, people look at him and say that he’s cool, but in ten years, the market is teeming with such. Many people think that fully Autonomous vehicles will appear in 5-10 years, but it will be a long time before will be sold the first car, until all cars will be Autonomous.
“Black monolith”
In his presentation, Evans said that of all the technologies that await us for the long haul, the easiest way to discuss artificial intelligence. And call it “AI” is useless. “It seems that someone put a black monolith in the beginning of 2001, in this room,” says Evans, “and we all turned into monkeys, who dance and shout. We don’t know what it is.”
Better to call artificial intelligence “machine learning” — as many do — and to consider it against the background of the key technology, which allows to identify and allocate patterns in completely unfamiliar areas, and among the data that are observed for the first time. In turn, it promises the automation of many areas.
It is important not to succumb to the idea that automation means opportunities. Rather, says Evans, the benefits of automation based on machine learning, this specific new features and, more importantly, the opportunity to create many new companies around the single verticals. Automation also serves as a multiplier that allows you to perform small tasks, the fulfilment of which by the people would have left thousands of working hours — for example, to look for patterns in the pictures.
If it makes one person, it’s not scary. But if thousands is a huge cost. Machine learning could significantly accelerate the process of processing data, for example on road traffic over the past few months.
Changing cities
Although the world is unlikely to change much autonomy will have a huge influence on him. When that day comes, the cars, buses and other vehicles will move without drivers, we will be able to look at them anew, to change, to do better.
If not will drivers on the road will be more cars. Accidents also should not be, if all the vehicles will be moving together, being aware of the actions of other cars on the road types. This will lead to a completely new design cities, which wouldn’t need the Parking, traffic, Parking.
It is not easy to predict exactly where it will lead us, what possibilities and promises, but they will be huge. Evans believes that it is important to see them in the context of the future. “If you build public infrastructure or city planning, to think in the years ahead, it is absolutely necessary. If you are planning a schedule of TV channel today, you do not think that will be to watch people when they don’t have more distractions on the road.”
The mixed reality
At first, the mixed reality is the third area of Evans offers a lot of opportunities. What would happen if you literally will be wearing a computer that can see?
Today, he says, we are at the stage of prototype development is to take, for example, Microsoft Hololens — but for the most part available little. Opportunities for development, of course. Magic Leap recently attracted $ 1.9 billion for the financing of the headset, which almost nobody saw.
Evans, to a lesser extent interested with the ability to impose recipes on the cooking surface, and more computers that can see and interpret what is happening around us. Such a computer would tell who you meet when you saw him last, what was it you wanted to talk to him. Or instantly will tell you whether there is availability of online goods cheaper than what you hold in your hands.
The crypt
Evans, to a lesser extent touched upon the possibilities of cryptocurrency in his speech. But the power of the “crypts” are unconditional. First, crypto-currencies provide for decentralized storage of valuables without need for a Central authority — for example, the government that governs traditional money. This is important in a world where people are losing faith in these institutions and want more control over the money without government intrusion.
Second, the technology underlying the cryptocurrency, it is possible to program and use a completely new way. Over time, this will obratitsya. It is extremely important that nobody sees, that can grow in the virgin soil of the new technologies. Is it possible to imagine Airbnb before the Internet?
“In 2007 we thought, how to make a smartphone, and now we think about what can be done with the smartphone yet,” says Evans. “Similarly, today we think how to make the Autonomous vehicle, machine learning, mixed reality, and twenty years later would think that would be with them to create more.”
Technologies that promise to change the world in five years
Ilya Hel