The last few decades we have seen how one technology replace the other, trying to break into the consumer market. Buying a new smartphone or a flying drone, very easy to see how quickly these changes occur. Take the TV is one of the most common examples of consumer electronics that became popular about 70 years ago. Many of those who survived, most likely, still keep the memories of “delevitras” era. Similarly, some technologies that seem fantastic today, our children (and if not children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren) will undoubtedly be perceived as normal and perhaps even outdated.
It is pointless to argue with the fact that the world will continue to change, and with it will change and technology. But what changes we expect – is a matter rather of personal assumptions. Only one thing is clear: new technology can become a mass market only if they are able to attract the same level of interest, which at the time drew the same TV. It is only then that they can truly influence our lives. Many of those examples, which we will talk today, a few decades ago was considered solely in the realities of science fiction, but it is possible that in the near future they can become an integral part of our everyday life.
We offer you to disassemble several technologies with the potential to radically change our lives in both good and bad side. This article will present only those examples of technologies that are really actively promoted in the mass and strive to become the mundane things of our future.
Self-driving cars
Automated transport driven by computers instead of man already exists. But if this technology will become really popular, that is, self-driving cars will replace most of the standard models driven people, they really can change the lives of their owners. Examples of these changes represent a snap. Self-driving cars will be able to significantly reduce the number of road accidents. Largely due to the exclusion from the equation human error. When you consider that in an accident each year in the world killed about 1.3 million people, the effect is very noticeable.
The increase in the number of self-driving cars on the road will cause less noticeable changes. Owning a personal vehicle can become a thing of the past for most people and is superseded by the ability to call any number of self-driving vehicles at any given time. Most likely, it will differ little from the use of such services as Uber and Lyft, but in theory can be even cheaper and more efficient. If an individual owning a car a thing of the past, you will change the infrastructure of cities. The reduction in Parking spaces and private garages for vehicles can significantly relieve the space in urban centres, where usually the opposite is true.
May change the design of cars. No need for the driver-the person will develop the vehicle more compact and therefore more economical, to make them faster and more maneuverable. Experts believe that computer navigation system has the potential to provide more safety on the road, compared to a man.
If you end up on the road will be only self-driving cars, the creation of a common computerized navigation network will allow in the future to move these cars on the higher, compared to the current vehicles speeds. This will solve the problem of traffic jams, and the presence of a variety of incentive programs to simplify the mobility between different regional areas. In turn, this will simplify the choice in favor of the housing outside the cities, where, as a rule, it is cheaper, but will not sacrifice comfort.
However, the increase in the number of self-driving cars carries risk. Full adaptation of this technology is likely to deprive the whole economy jobs. Take, for truckers, and indeed all drivers of goods and passenger vehicles. We will increase unemployment and reduce wages, at least in the short term, until people find a new job. Self-driving cars will be an interesting and vulnerable target for hackers. It’s one thing to disable a particular vehicle, the other – to organize sabotage in the whole network of vehicles. Such attacks can not only lead to human casualties, but can turn a seemingly ordinary car into a real weapon.
Augmented reality
As self-driving cars, augmented reality is already here. You might still remember the explosion of popularity of mobile games Pokémon Go, where the aim was to capture digital monsters “settled in” the real world. Less popular device Google Glass was also an early attempt to bring augmented reality. Background of this technology involve the overlay of digital functions (image and sound) on the real world so to improve your perception.
Quite easy to imagine the direction in which augmented reality can continue to develop if really shoot. And to some extent this is already happening. We all use smartphones to obtain additional information about those things, objects and places with whom we plan to interact. Now imagine that the entire volume of useful information about these things will not be displayed on the screen of your smartphone, and, say, on the screen of your glasses that you wear every day. Or, if we take into account a more futuristic option on your digital retina. For example, you want to buy a used car, and instead look for all the information on the Internet, it will be given you before your eyes. Saw a beautiful picture, but I don’t know the artist? No problem, the system will automatically sign the author’s masterpiece. You do not even need to go into his pocket for a smartphone. Like a girl or guy at the party, but you don’t remember their names? If they have accounts in social networks – the system will quickly find them for you and give all the information.
And this is only a small part of what will be able this technology. Imagine playing a Board game that is seen only by you and the other players, or sporting event using a virtual obstacle overlaid on the real Playground.
However, as smartphones, the device augmented reality can impose on users of the social costs. If before your eyes will always be information you can experience a real information overload. This technology will be another constantly distracting stimulus. The same stimulus now are smartphones. Imagine having someone to talk to, but before his eyes continually updated with information that the person is diverted, and actually skips a deaf ear to what you say to him. The level of dependence on this technology will be even higher than it is now from smartphones, to which we all used to stare for no reason. Of course, it will be a big social problem.
Today, many people just can’t live without their smartphones. The situation is further exacerbated when information will be made available to us in real time, even in cases when it is possible and you will not be required. Moreover, the constant unhindered access to information can cause dependence even the most persistent users. And as the augmented reality device can be equipped with function of video recording, literally everything will fall our eyes, and will significantly increase the problem of protection of privacy.
Virtual reality
The idea of virtual reality (VR) is a direct stamp of science fiction (think “the Matrix”), ironically trying to complicate our perception of the panorama of real life. But, like other devices that we have already discussed above, the device of virtual reality already exist today, albeit in a very primitive forms, in the form of the same Oculus Rift and Vive. Obviously, however, the more successful and convenient embodiment of the technology can make it in a few decades the same everyday, what are those television sets today.
In its most fantastic incarnation (again, remember “the Matrix”) virtual reality will become completely indistinguishable from the real one, where the user can experience full range of emotions and actions inherent in the real world. This level of excellence virtual reality is unlikely to be achievable in the near future, however, a growing interest in this technology accumulates the development of technologies of visual, sound and tactile feedback, which is certainly necessary to enhance the effect of human presence within the system. It is quite possible that ever will reach such a level where even your brain will not distinguish between incoming information as artificial.
Today all the talk around the virtual reality associated with how to improve the experience of perception of different media, take those video games where you physically can play the role of a character, or VR movies, allowing a virtual dive in the environment of the film. However, the full embodiment of the virtual cyberspace can have a more profound impact on people’s lives.
For example, this technology will significantly save the time we spend to get to certain places. Offices and grocery stores, as such, would be absolutely unnecessary infrastructure (to work and to go shopping will be, directly lying on the sofa). Friends and relatives living in other cities, will be literally in walking distance from you (of course, if the implementation of technology, physical presence). Imagine that you are sitting in the cafeteria almost realistic and lead a conversation with a close friend who is actually from you on the other side of the world. Of course, the taste of coffee, you will not feel, but can feel a pleasant feeling of meeting a family man. Or even better: fly with him over some mountains, or to visit a virtual copy of all the wonders of the world, and maybe even fly to Mars, and then over lunch to discuss the details. How do you mean?
If you look at the issue from a logical extremes, the technology of virtual reality could lead to the fact that we do no longer need to release into society. And in combination with technologies of automated vehicles, unmanned vehicles and drones that can deliver almost any desired item right at your doorstep, this opportunity will become even more real. What we call “the public” can move seamlessly into the virtual world. This transformation will be able to completely life-changing for those who it will be solved. Users of virtual reality will be able to choose in what capacity to be present in the online environment. Concepts such as age, gender, and even species, will be completely irrelevant in this world. Here effortlessly you can violate the usual laws of physics, teleporting anywhere in the world at will, while remaining protected from any physical harm, to buy new, although digital goods. From this point of view virtual reality really looks more attractive than the real thing.
But, despite all of the exotic benefits that can promise this technology, it can also entail serious risks. Such a significant transformation in human interaction can unpredictably influence the principle of this interaction. People can simply cease to communicate among themselves in real life, even being in the same room. Moreover, we may irrevocably lose the sense of what is truly real and palpable, replacing it with the virtual experience. I don’t know what it is about, just watch the movie “Surrogates”.
The question of identification in the virtual reality environment can also be extremely important. As you learn who you really are communicating? The current Internet has proven that anonymity can be dangerous. The transfer of the basis of human interaction in a virtual environment may entail certain risks. Starting from the failure of the system and ending the influence of those who want to cause harm. In addition, even without this, today’s commercial companies are trying to impose on us the desired behavior for them, their products and services, while being very limited for this means of exposure. Now imagine that your a totally immersive experience with virtual reality is controlled by these companies.
The genetic modification of people
Although the phrase “genetic modification” may still cause a feeling like we’re talking about something futuristic, in fact, the practice of changing the genetic material in living organisms originates from the earliest days of the development of agriculture and livestock. Nevertheless, people are still (understandably) anxiously to the more complex and advanced forms of genetic modification, if it concerns themselves. But the technology is still not standing still and becoming more and more developed and, it seems, will soon be able to convince people to overcome their fears.
Prospects, promised by the technology of genetic modification is too broad, so hurriedly to tell about them all. If this technology one day will become cheap and widespread, then eventually she will be able to completely eliminate the problem of hereditary diseases, ranging from the trivial problems like baldness to serious problems like hereditary diseases cells. It can also be used to reduce a genetic predisposition to a particular common condition, which eventually may lead to various diseases in humans in the course of their lives. It is, for example, about the different heart disease and cancer.
The use of this technology does not stop the disease. In a really advanced form of genetic engineering will allow future parents to “build” your own child. And it’s not just about choosing the color of eyes and hair. In its ultimate form, the technology will allow to create more intelligent children are healthier, to choose their future growth, physical body weight, making them more attractive. Since a significant part of the personality is formed at the genetic level, parents will be able to select this feature: you want your child to be good – please, less violent – no problem, we need an altruist – now corrected. Of course, the consequences of such genetic changes can carry dolgoprudnoye character and transmitted to new generations.
Of course, manipulation of the genetics of a person can entail certain risks. The result may be unpredictable consequences for human health, has suffered this “improvement”, including problems with the development of personality. For example, some characteristics and traits that we find desirable for the child’s future may be closely linked with undesirable characteristics. If you start to talk about possible negative effects, then our imagination will definitely begin to build the most horrible pictures with mutilated physically and psychologically, genetically modified people, however, the negative effects of this technology can apply not only to human health but also on social and economic aspects. At least at the dawn of this technology. If the process will initially be expensive, it will be available, most likely, only wealthy people – those who already enjoy a comfortable life and almost total permissiveness.
The concentration of these advantages of access to genetic modification of children only in the hands of the “elite” carries the risk of increasing existing inequalities between the social strata of the population and those who can pay for such treatments and those who cannot. However, if such technologies will be banned in some countries, it is not necessarily that they will be banned in the other. People with high incomes, of course, sooner or later will be able to use them.
Space travel and colonization
Perhaps, among the most predisposed to the development of technological possibilities of space travel are the most interesting. Countless sci-Fi tales and stories associated with them. Although traveling faster than the speed of light, as shown in kinofranshizy such as “Star trek”, yet are subject to the clearly very distant future (by the way, the majority of physicists believes that it is in principle possible), people are eager to start the age of space travel within the Solar system for more than 50 years. The mission “Apollo” 60-ies and 70-ies proved that such a voyage is indeed possible, though incredibly difficult to execute.
Colonization of other worlds and their satellites, on the other hand, has not yet been taken. But there are people who firmly believe that will be able to deliver mankind to the same Mars in 2025 to establish a colony. Elon Musk. Of course, we are talking about it.
Space colonization is associated with a huge number of different risks and financial costs, so in the next few decades we are unlikely to see as thousands of people will move to the moon or Mars. Most likely, the first colonies will be very small and will be chiefly academic nature of the ground, performing the task to study an inhospitable environment and developing a suitable living infrastructure. However, some colonies may be found in business: is small but rapidly developing industry plans for mining (water, precious metals and other resources) from asteroids.
These two types of colonies will be a driving factor in many future technological advances and may even be able to find a solution for some financial problems with which the human civilization will definitely encounter on the Earth for a few decades. And if initially small colonies will continue to grow, then eventually they can become an important stronghold for humanity in the face of catastrophic events on our home planet.
Space travel is, perhaps, the only technological aspect of this list that will not be a reverse negative effect. Unless, of course, does not take into account the possibility of infection of some space infection and spread it on the Ground before returning to the rest of the space colonists. If space colonies in fact did not work, then it probably is and will be the greatest tragedy for mankind.
The end natural aging
Slowdown or even complete cessation of the natural aging process of the body is a very old dream of all mankind. The legend of the Fountain of youth – a spring that restores youth to any who drink from it, is not one thousand years. By itself, the suppression of the natural aging process is not for modern medicine a specific task, but as medicine itself and used its technology continues to improve, then the average duration of human life also increased significantly and continues to grow. The question of whether it is possible to stop the biological aging process, remains the subject of debate, but some scientists, for example, working for a nonprofit SENS Research Foundation has already been attempting to find the right way.
If they succeed and the technology that freeze the aging process to be widely available among the population, the consequences can be very extensive. This level of technology is unlikely to lead to immortality – people will continue to be subject to disease, failure of organs, the risk of being killed in accidents, various incidents and so on. However, it is recognized that aging is one of the triggers a range of diseases, which will become less common if people will stop aging.
But even if death by old age will be very rare, such changes will undoubtedly have a big impact, at least from the point of view of how people plan their lives. Work and family life will last centuries, not decades as it is now. The realization of very ambitious projects, usually requiring the participation of several generations will be able to complete those same people that they started. The whole industrial sector, whose work is connected with the service of elderly people will be in this case simply irrelevant.
Of course, any changes such a fundamental aspect of human life should be treated with extreme caution. One of the risks, which, of course, will accompany the absence of the natural aging process, is overpopulation. If the fertility rate will remain at the same level, and the absence of natural mortality will not be able to compensate, then our planet will be overpopulated very quickly.
This shift in social life will require a major reassessment of values including the question of the necessity of procreation. But given the fact that the desire to reproduce is human psychology as fundamental fact, and our fundamental conception of death, then do it, obviously, would be very difficult.
In addition, as in the case of genetic modification, this technology is likely to be available is not for everyone, but rather only for the very wealthy citizens (at least at the initial stage), which only further widen the gap between the social layers of the population. This circumstance put a young, but poor people even greater disadvantage than they are now. Moreover, in the absence of mortality among the older generation branch of government can become virtually irremovable, making it more young to take their place. Ultimately, this may lead to the emergence of a social structure in which the hands of a very old (soul but not the body) is concentrated all the control over society, which, of course, will lead to global civil war and disunity of mankind.
Artificial intelligence for everyday life
Together with the technologies of genetic modification and virtual reality artificial intelligence is a direct stamp of science fiction, often accompanied by apocalyptic connotation. Every time someone talks about the various probable scenarios of the future end of the world, artificial intelligence is definitely sooner or later gets out. However swarmintelligence AI (which is credited to our destruction) is unlikely to be the first form of AI that will be commonly used by mankind.
The artificial intelligence of the near future is likely to be much smarter than their predecessors in the form of digital assistants Siri and Alexa with their often ridiculous misunderstanding of their tasks. However, the prevalence of such types of AI can be broad implications for the social aspects of our lives. Many forms of automation are already able to cope (and cope) with many tasks that were previously entrusted to man. Basically we are talking about production process, but this is only the beginning.
Even if the AI is much less intellectually developed than the average person, it is still potentially suitable for filling of wide range of stationery and office working positions (as well as additional assistance with manual labor), who are currently busy employees-people. If replacement of people to robots will happen EN masse and very quickly, it can completely reorganize or even eliminate the very concept of “employment” as we understand it now.
Some technologists believe that sooner or later all the work people would be ideal replacements for the so-called universal basic income, financed by the profits derived from work in artificial intelligence. On the other hand, there are certainly those who would say that throughout the history of technological revolution was the disappearance of jobs. Can agree with this, except that from a historical point of view, the result of these disappearances became widespread unemployment. So the main question here is not whether or not we are moving towards full automation, and how big it will be and how fast we will get there.
With the further development of artificial intelligence digital assistants in our smartphones are not going anywhere. They will become more efficient and able to cope with most basic tasks for planning and logistics, what most people today cope on their own. In fact, some of today’s technologies in the future may be completely unnecessary. AI assistants can learn to effectively predict our desires and we make some minor decisions based on knowledge about us and according to the basic instructions that we give.
And still to this perspective, large-scale revolution, the AI should be approached with caution. Because even with a relatively “pink” and does “not apocalyptic” scenario described above, where mankind move from an economy built on the basis of human labour to the economy posed by AI, you need to be very careful to prevent mass unemployment and eventually come to a situation where the technology is concentrated in the hands of a few (small and closed group of people or company). The spread of broadband Internet it’s no wonder teaches us that any information technology that are beginning to rely on most people, should be carefully protected from malicious intent.
Low-level AI, whose intellectual abilities are below human, sooner or later will pave the way for the creation of the intellect of mankind and, perhaps, of superintelligence. The continuing development of technologies of AI have the potential to forever change the course of human history. Our dominion over this world today is not based on power or speed (many animals are stronger and faster than us) – it is based on intelligence. If the light will be a being with intelligence superior to our own, it is likely that these entities (or those who manage them) to a greater extent will determine the future of our world and ourselves.
Seven sci-Fi technologies creating our future
Nikolai Khizhnyak