This jaknikker bend for no one: peak oil is dead

Posted on 07-07-2016 at 20:33 by jaapiyo – 47 Comments”

No, it has nothing to do with that thing on top of your christmas tree place.

Peak Oil, you hear the concept of the last years often. It sounds like the exciting title of a movie in which Matt Damon the role played by an employee of a large industrial company that is slowly but surely in a gewetenscrisis gets involved. Check out this intro of the documentary ‘Earth Days’ and you can see it all for you:

The Dutch translation of the term is, as often, much less to the imagination speaking. We give the phenomenon, namely the witty name peak oil, or the dusty name Hubbertpiek. The last term is a reference to the geophysicist Marion King else because they who worked for Shell and came up with the peak oil theory in 1956. Else because they developed a mathematical formula that the goal was to predict when the oil production to its highest level would achieve. His model focused initially on the Us oil production. When, in due course, the actual numbers in the predictions of the model were found to follow, it received more attention and was there a global variant.

Six years ago, we reported that OPEC was expected that Peak Oil will be somewhere around 2020-2030. Some scientists claimed, however, that Peak Oil had taken place in 2005. A set Koeweiti (Q8-i) said that 2014 is the year of the truth.

Five years ago we had your attention again to deal with the throbbing text Peak Oil is here. Peak Oil turns out to be a somewhat elastic concept. The fact is that oil production is currently on a all time high has been reached and it is estimated that in any case in the short term continues to rise. While the price of oil to fall, and the production to epic height is increased, we will ask us in 2016: how to proceed further now with Peak Oil?

To start, we are putting even the basics vary. Because we know that there is no infinite amount of oil and the stock ever runs out, in fact there are three scenarios that can cause us to the top of the olieproductiecurve reach.

1) The production of oil becomes so expensive that other energy sources will automatically become more interesting. This can, for example, because the oil of enormous depth drilled must be, or must be won in difficult terrain.

2) The production of alternative energy is more efficient and cheaper, so oil is no longer an interesting alternative in terms of price. In fact the same as point 1 so, only then swoops in from the other side.

3) The emergency scenario: if just the bottom of the bottle comes into view, and there are no other sources to drilling, the oil production of course.

4) The extra-emergency: if the world deteriorates because of the crab-people, the hegemony of mankind to break, and we return to the middle ages, so no more oil is needed.

Then we can look at the probability of these scenarios today. We look at the first scenario, we can, for instance, that even in an old industry as the winning of oil, the technology is not standing still. Look at America, where the political will to be less dependent on the Middle East has led to exploiting previously ignored oil and gas reserves in their own country by means of fracking. Fracking is, in principle, not new, oil-moloch, Haliburton applied the technique, in 1949 in Kansas. Thanks to new tech is fracking now, however, cheaper than previously and can be applied to more oil wells. Especially in the states of North Dakota, Texas, and Pennsylvania is the motto these days, therefore ‘frack baby frack’. Also, geologists have not been idle in the last few decades and it is always better to capture where there are still more grondschatten are hidden. Of from the pan travelling costs to get oil out of the ground to pick up, is therefore currently not the case and that to speak against the short-term reach of Peak Oil.

The Saudi minister of energy Sheikh Zaki Yamani said in the years ’70 all of the following:

“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.”

That’s been a while ago, so those are alternative sources of energy are finally cheaper? Yes, at least according to Bloomberg and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Bloomberg predicts that the cost of ‘green’ energy over the next 10 years, sharp will fall. IRENA claims that there are worldwide by 2015 149 additional gigawatt-hours of green energy is generated. It is the fifth consecutive year that ‘renewables’ more than half of the new capacity on their behalf have been taken. In some parts of the world, the prices of energy from hydro, wind, geothermal or biomass, are already competitive with that of fossil fuel. Several countries, including the Netherlands, are hoping, for example, that wind energy in 2025 as cheap as energy from oil and gas. Alternatives are therefore cheaper than before, but they are generally not cheaper than oil and gas. If the hopeful objectives of some of the parties can be achieved, what still remains to be seen, still takes at least a year or 10.

Okay, but is that oil is not low? That falls into. At this time, the stock of oil that are scattered is still in the ground estimated to be about two trillion barrels, which at current production levels still should be sufficient for a year, or 70. You would think that it won’t happen, but thanks to the aforementioned advances in the geology, there’s also the occasional new supplies found. An example of this is a huge oil field in the Us states of Wyomining, Utah and Colorado, also known as ” Persia on the Plains.” We can our thirst was just lessons and our addiction to feed.

Or the crab-people are genuine or not I leave to the estimation of the individual reaguurder.

Image Credit: Universic Times via Twitter